Note to users. If you're seeing this message, it means that your browser cannot find this page's style/presentation instructions -- or possibly that you are using a browser that does not support current Web standards. Find out more about why this message is appearing, and what you can do to make your experience of our site the best it can be.

Science 16 March 2007:
Vol. 315. no. 5818, pp. 1533 - 1536
DOI: 10.1126/science.1139426
Prev | Table of Contents | Next

Review

Perspectives on the Arctic's Shrinking Sea-Ice Cover

Mark C. Serreze,1* Marika M. Holland,2 Julienne Stroeve1

Linear trends in arctic sea-ice extent over the period 1979 to 2006 are negative in every month. This ice loss is best viewed as a combination of strong natural variability in the coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere system and a growing radiative forcing associated with rising concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases, the latter supported by evidence of qualitative consistency between observed trends and those simulated by climate models over the same period. Although the large scatter between individual model simulations leads to much uncertainty as to when a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean might be realized, this transition to a new arctic state may be rapid once the ice thins to a more vulnerable state. Loss of the ice cover is expected to affect the Arctic's freshwater system and surface energy budget and could be manifested in middle latitudes as altered patterns of atmospheric circulation and precipitation.

1 Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, National Snow and Ice Data Center, Campus Box 449, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309–0449, USA.
2 National Center for Atmospheric Research, Post Office Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, USA.

* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: serreze{at}kryos.colorado.edu

Read the Full Text


THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
Phytoplankton in a changing world: cell size and elemental stoichiometry.
Z. V. Finkel, J. Beardall, K. J. Flynn, A. Quigg, T. A. V. Rees, and J. A. Raven (2009)
J. Plankton Res.
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Rebuttal of "Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit".
S. C. Amstrup, H. Caswell, E. DeWeaver, I. Stirling, D. C. Douglas, B. G. Marcot, and C. M. Hunter (2009)
Interfaces 39, 353-369
   Abstract »    PDF »
Southern Ocean frontal structure and sea-ice formation rates revealed by elephant seals.
J.-B. Charrassin, M. Hindell, S. R. Rintoul, F. Roquet, S. Sokolov, M. Biuw, D. Costa, L. Boehme, P. Lovell, R. Coleman, et al. (2008)
PNAS 105, 11634-11639
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Human-Induced Arctic Moistening.
S.-K. Min, X. Zhang, and F. Zwiers (2008)
Science 320, 518-520
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »


To Advertise     Find Products

Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)