Note to users. If you're seeing this message, it means that your browser cannot find this page's style/presentation instructions -- or possibly that you are using a browser that does not support current Web standards. Find out more about why this message is appearing, and what you can do to make your experience of our site the best it can be.

Science 27 April 2001:
Vol. 292. no. 5517, pp. 662 - 667
DOI: 10.1126/science.1059126
Prev | Table of Contents | Next

Review

The Evolution of Climate Over the Last Millennium

P. D. Jones,* T. J. Osborn, K. R. Briffa

Knowledge of past climate variability is crucial for understanding and modeling current and future climate trends. This article reviews present knowledge of changes in temperatures and two major circulation features--El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)--over much of the last 1000 years, mainly on the basis of high-resolution paleoclimate records. Average temperatures during the last three decades were likely the warmest of the last millennium, about 0.2°C warmer than during warm periods in the 11th and 12th centuries. The 20th century experienced the strongest warming trend of the millennium (about 0.6°C per century). Some recent changes in ENSO may have been unique since 1800, whereas the recent trend to more positive NAO values may have occurred several times since 1500. Uncertainties will only be reduced through more extensive spatial sampling of diverse proxy climatic records.

Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK.
*   To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: p.jones{at}uea.ac.uk

Read the Full Text


THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CITED BY OTHER ARTICLES:
The impacts of climate change on the annual cycles of birds.
C. Carey (2009)
Phil Trans R Soc B 364, 3321-3330
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Shifting latitudinal clines in avian body size correlate with global warming in Australian passerines.
J. L. Gardner, R. Heinsohn, and L. Joseph (2009)
Proc R Soc B 276, 3845-3852
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
HIGH-RESOLUTION MG/CA RATIOS IN A CORALLINE RED ALGA AS A PROXY FOR BERING SEA TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS FROM 1902 TO 1967.
S. HETZINGER, J. HALFAR, A. KRONZ, R. S. STENECK, W. ADEY, P. A. LEBEDNIK, and B. R. SCHONE (2009)
Palaios 24, 406-412
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
A Significant Upward Shift in Plant Species Optimum Elevation During the 20th Century.
J. Lenoir, J. C. Gegout, P. A. Marquet, P. de Ruffray, and H. Brisse (2008)
Science 320, 1768-1771
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Palaeohydrological changes and human-impact history over the last millennium recorded at Lake Joux in the Jura Mountains, Switzerland.
M. Magny, E. Gauthier, B. Vanniere, and O. Peyron (2008)
The Holocene 18, 255-265
   Abstract »    PDF »
A high-resolution late Holocene lake isotope record from Turkey and links to North Atlantic and monsoon climate.
M. D. Jones, C. N. Roberts, M. J. Leng, and M. Turkes (2006)
Geology 34, 361-364
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
A 1000-yr record of forest fire activity from Eclipse Icefield, Yukon, Canada.
K. Yalcin, C. P. Wake, K. J. Kreutz, and S. I. Whitlow (2006)
The Holocene 16, 200-209
   Abstract »    PDF »
Comment on "The Ocean Sink for Anthropogenic CO2".
R. F. Keeling (2005)
Science 308, 1743c
   Full Text »    PDF »
Late-Holocene glacier growth in Svalbard, documented by subglacial relict vegetation and living soil microbes.
O. Humlum, B. Elberling, A. Hormes, K. Fjordheim, O. H. Hansen, and J. Heinemeier (2005)
The Holocene 15, 396-407
   Abstract »    PDF »
Reconstructing Past Climate from Noisy Data.
H. von Storch, E. Zorita, J. M. Jones, Y. Dimitriev, F. Gonzalez-Rouco, and S. F. B. Tett (2004)
Science 306, 679-682
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
A high-resolution, 800-year glaciomarine record from Russkaya Gavan', a Novaya Zemlya fjord, eastern Barents Sea.
L. Polyak, L. Polyak, I. Murdmaa, and E. Ivanova (2004)
The Holocene 14, 628-634
   Abstract »    PDF »
European Seasonal and Annual Temperature Variability, Trends, and Extremes Since 1500.
J. Luterbacher, D. Dietrich, E. Xoplaki, M. Grosjean, and H. Wanner (2004)
Science 303, 1499-1503
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Changes in solar activity and Holocene climatic shifts derived from 14C wiggle-match dated peat deposits.
D. Mauquoy, D. Mauquoy, B. van Geel, M. Blaauw, A. Speranza, and J. van der Plicht (2004)
The Holocene 14, 45-52
   Abstract »    PDF »
Tree-ring records from central Fennoscandia: the relationship between tree growth and climate along a west-east transect.
H. W. Linderholm, H. W. Linderholm, B. O. Solberg, and M. Lindholm (2003)
The Holocene 13, 887-895
   Abstract »    PDF »
A 1000-year record of forest fire, drought and lake-level change in southeastern British Columbia, Canada.
D. J. Hallett, R. W. Mathewes, and R. C. Walker (2003)
The Holocene 13, 751-761
   Abstract »    PDF »
A 'clam-ring' master-chronology constructed from a short-lived bivalve mollusc from the northern Gulf of California, USA.
B. R. Schoene and B. R. Schone (2003)
The Holocene 13, 39-49
   Abstract »    PDF »
Low-Frequency Signals in Long Tree-Ring Chronologies for Reconstructing Past Temperature Variability.
J. Esper, E. R. Cook, and F. H. Schweingruber (2002)
Science 295, 2250-2253
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »
Abrupt Decrease in Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Salinity at End of Little Ice Age.
E. J. Hendy, M. K. Gagan, C. A. Alibert, M. T. McCulloch, J. M. Lough, and P. J. Isdale (2002)
Science 295, 1511-1514
   Abstract »    Full Text »    PDF »


To Advertise     Find Products

Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online)