There are no major technical hurdles to verifying a global nuclear test ban treaty, a National Academy of Sciences panel concluded last week. The 11-member panel, led by Harvard University security expert John Holdren, concluded that monitoring technologies make it nearly impossible for cheaters to hide tests of even the smallest weapons, down to 1 kiloton. The findings undermine claims made by opponents of the 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), signed but never ratified by the United States.
Crater from 1962 blast.
CREDIT: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
The report, requested 2 years ago by Clinton Administration officials, arrives as nations prepare to gather in New York City next month to discuss ways to move ahead with the stalled CTBT, which can't take effect until it is ratified by the 44 states judged capable of building nuclear weapons. So far, 13 of those nations have refused. The Senate tabled the treaty in 1999 after a bitter debate, and the Bush Administration has no plans to revive the issue.
The report isn't likely to break the stalemate, observers say. But panelist Paul Richards, a seismology expert at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, New York, predicts that the treaty "will become politically salient again. And when it does, this report will be out there, ready to inform policy-makers."
